Statistics 101

I hope that you have been enjoying the Archive entries. They are coming from the saved Word documents that I have on my computer from when I used to send them in to Hawkeye Racing News each week. By posting them here on the blog page it is helping me to actually archive columns that can otherwise only be found in print if you kept your racing papers from those years, something that I did not do.

It has been fun to see some of the names of drivers who have since retired as well as those early starts by drivers who have gone on to become big stars in the world of racing. One recent Archive entry had a report from Oskaloosa where then 14-year-old Brett Moffitt was winning in the B-Mods on his way to a NASCAR Cup Rookie-of-the-Year title and later the NASCAR Truck Series Championship. On that same night 15-year-old Ryan Gustin was challenging for the win in the Modified feature on his way to numerous wins and notoriety on the dirt tracks of this country.

Maguire DeJong - From Matt DeJong's Facebook page Jodie Casey Photography

So just think, when we are finally back to racing at the Southern Iowa Speedway on Wednesday nights watching young drivers such as Dylan Van Wyk. Maguire DeJong and others, just imagine where their careers might be fifteen to twenty years from now.

So I wanted to put up some new content for you today and instead of telling you how I feel about this COVID-19 stuff I just want to share some information and let you make your own decisions. I am a big fan of statistics, the fact that I have been doing the All Iowa Points now for more than forty years should give you an indication of that and one of the things that I know about statistics is that people can use them in different ways to try to support their stance on a given subject. And Lord knows that we have seen a lot that going on in the media over the past three months!

Using the numbers stated as of yesterday on the Worldometer page for the United States in regard to COVID-19 here are the same stats presented in two different ways:

The number of people who have tested positive for COVID-19 (this is a cumulative number that grows with each new case and does not decrease once a patient dies or recovers):

United States: 1,010,356
Iowa: 5,868
Illinois: 45,883
Missouri: 7,239
Wisconsin: 6,081
Minnesota: 3,816
Nebraska: 3,358

Those are some big numbers! Now, here are those same numbers stated as a % of the population for each, that would be the "Tot Cases/ 1M pop" column put into a percentage format:

United States: 0.3052%
Iowa: 0.1873%
Illinois: 0.3579%
Missouri: 0.1189%
Wisconsin: 0.1052%
Minnesota: 0.069%
Nebraska: 0.1763%

Kudos to Minnesota, they have the sixth lowest percentage of positive cases among the fifty states trailing only Hawaii, Montana, Alaska, Oregon and West Virginia!

Now, let's look at Active cases for each:

United States: 814,569
Iowa: 3,720
Illinois: 43,294
Missouri: 6,392
Wisconsin: 3,487
Minnesota: 1,688
Nebraska: 3,280

Unfortunately the Worldometer site doesn't have a column for the number of Active Cases per one million population so I would have to use some math in order to give you these numbers as a percentage of the population, but since I am lazy I will just give you one.

Iowa: 0.1187%

So these statistics would tell you that if you were in a crowd of, let's say 2,000 people, that 3.17 of those people might have an Active case of the virus and, if you were practicing proper social distancing and all wearing masks, what would be your probability of being exposed to the virus? Well, this is where I no longer have reliable stats to use because if you Google search the effectiveness of staying six feet apart and both wearing masks you will see a variety of different theories, but the common line of thinking is that it does greatly reduce the risk of exposure.

Okay, so all of that was statistics as they currently layout. I am not trying to tell you how to think or what to think and, since I preview and link this blog on the Positively Racing Facebook page, I ask that you refrain from trying to make your case one way or another in the comments as they will be hidden or deleted from there.

Now, I am going to tell you how I am thinking about this when it comes to going to the races. With the Southern Oklahoma Speedway racing this weekend and events at the Scotland County Speedway and the Lee County Speedway, plus many more now being scheduled for next weekend, I do plan on going to the races without fear, but definitely taking the proper precautions.

I will wear a mask and I hope that those sitting around me, at least six feet apart, will as well. If they are not, I will simply get up and move to another spot in the stands and, if I can't do that and don't feel comfortable I might even leave without creating any kind of disturbance or a scene.

I am going to trust that any race fan who has been knowingly exposed to the virus, and/or has any symptoms is going to be respectful of others and stay home for now. This always gets a guffaw from the cynics out there who assume that people are not going to be respectful in this manner. After two months of this I have faith in mankind, they know the risks and I have to trust humanity.

When I am driving on a two lane road to and from the races I am putting my trust in that driver who is coming at me going the opposite direction to stay in his own lane. If he does not, and hits me head on, I have a 90% chance of dying. If the guy sitting six feet away from me has a fever and comes to the races anyway, but has a mask on my chances of getting the virus is low and, even if I do, at 57 years of age and in relatively good health, my chances of survival are at least 90%.

In other words, I have more of a chance of getting killed in a car accident going to, or coming from the races and that threat has remained the same for many years now. Even more so during deer crossing season.

In Missouri there will be fans in the stands practicing social distancing. In Iowa for now though, no fans are allowed in the stands. With the Governor opening up restaurants at 50% capacity in 77 counties beginning on May 1st, hopefully that same logic can be used soon when it comes to race tracks.

Let's use Knoxville for an example where you could easily seat 4,000 fans in the front stretch grandstands, keeping household groups (families) together and probably ten feet of distance from anybody else in an open air environment (not an enclosed restaurant) where there are no servers coming up to you to get your order and then later bringing you your food.

Seems to me that 4,000 race fans at Knoxville would be much safer than 125 diners in an Applebees, but that's just the stats guy in me speaking.

Here's hoping that I see you soon on the Back Stretch, but keep your distance!

(May 5th Follow up)

Yesterday I had a reader who obviously did not understand my analogy about trusting an oncoming driver on a two lane road as being the same as trusting that someone who is sick, or who has knowingly been exposed to the virus staying home rather than going to the races. You know, the "faith in mankind" line above?

The reader then took his mis-reading of that analogy and started quoting his own stats proving once again that statistics can always be used to support your point of view.

The bottom line is this, the opinion above is mine and is completely based upon my own feelings toward the current situation, my own age and health circumstances and the level of risk that I am willing to assume. In no way am I telling you how you should think, in fact I even say that before expressing my opinion. So please, make your own decisions and live your own life as you see fit. 

Stay well, stay healthy!